Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.342236 0.389143 0.440069 0.499460 0.566822 0.640857 0.728410
2025-09-21 0.270868 0.332363 0.404257 0.494503 0.604776 0.735179 0.901195
2025-09-28 0.217290 0.285639 0.371078 0.485703 0.635514 0.824772 1.082298
2025-10-05 0.186586 0.261396 0.360873 0.502783 0.700125 0.965081 1.348414
2025-10-12 0.156755 0.233054 0.340531 0.502898 0.742136 1.082088 1.602850
2025-10-19 0.134817 0.211893 0.326477 0.509104 0.793133 1.218668 1.906239
2025-10-26 0.118856 0.196797 0.318662 0.522889 0.856985 1.382929 2.276209
2025-11-02 0.099613 0.173244 0.293980 0.506116 0.870087 1.470398 2.539020
2025-11-09 0.082515 0.150332 0.266646 0.480351 0.863886 1.524898 2.754902
2025-11-16 0.071040 0.135234 0.250110 0.470276 0.882548 1.623187 3.060219
2025-11-23 0.061312 0.121689 0.234179 0.458592 0.896103 1.713637 3.364068
2025-11-30 0.055892 0.115412 0.230624 0.469380 0.952981 1.890966 3.857097
2025-12-07 0.047806 0.102806 0.213525 0.452092 0.954609 1.967219 4.173088
2025-12-14 0.042027 0.094000 0.202669 0.445820 0.977749 2.089913 4.604480
2025-12-21 0.036829 0.085569 0.191287 0.436628 0.993365 2.199670 5.026978
2025-12-28 0.034209 0.082427 0.190747 0.451057 1.062799 2.434229 5.760920
2026-01-04 0.030813 0.076918 0.184081 0.450490 1.098203 2.599087 6.363246
2026-01-11 0.028199 0.072842 0.180082 0.455566 1.147693 2.803536 7.092248
2026-01-18 0.026277 0.070160 0.178987 0.467548 1.215907 3.062377 7.995986
2026-01-25 0.023126 0.063782 0.167797 0.452292 1.213372 3.148760 8.479757
2026-02-01 0.020008 0.056952 0.154391 0.429084 1.186519 3.170100 8.798275
2026-02-08 0.017910 0.052566 0.146699 0.419960 1.195833 3.286309 9.390376
2026-02-15 0.016006 0.048402 0.138955 0.409436 1.199639 3.388503 9.960902